《社科汉语研究》
2025年第4期
摘要:本文重新审视了1980 年至2010 年间中国经济增长的内在机制。与主流观 点不同,我们的研究发现,中国在此期间的高速增长主要得益于国内私人家庭储 蓄的积累,而非外部资本流入或出口导向的政策。这种以储蓄为核心的增长模式 符合亚当·斯密式的内生积累逻辑:个体出于改善自身境况的愿望而储蓄、积累 资本,从而形成推动经济扩张的内在力量。改革开放后,低价的工资品(尤其是 粮食)与持续上升的工资收入之间形成了结构性差距,这一差距成为私人储蓄 扩张的源泉。储蓄转化为银行体系的资本来源,最终支撑了中国的资本形成与投 资增长。本文通过理论模型与实证分析相结合,揭示出中国经济增长并非简单由 “计划到市场”的体制转型推动,而是建立在特定制度惯性与政策路径依赖之上的 “内生储蓄驱动型增长”。
关键词:发展型国家;经济转型;工资品;价格超调;储蓄主导增长;渐进主义
Abstract: It has been commonly believed that economic reforms in the post-Mao Era since 1980 have changed China from autarky to an export-oriented developmental path, accompanied by inward and cheap FDI with advanced foreign technology. This paper challenges this view with quantitative evidence and shows that China’s recent growth has depended heavily on a domestic source of capital coming from newly available household sayings, stemming from (1) state mandatory price control over food as a wage good on the one hand and (2) a fast-growing wage level due to arising labour productivity on the other.
Keywords: Developmental State; Economic Transformation; Wage Goods; Price Overshooting; Savings-led Growth; Gradualism.

总结与反思第三届“中国研究学生论坛”的筹办工作